By Mark Fowler and Mike McAllum
All the conditions that create uncertainty make it likely that the rules for success will change.
The brain is a marvellous instrument. It creates patterns that help us use what we have seen and learnt as we approach new situations. Our ideas of success are just one of the many patterns we store – both conscious and unconscious. We call these patterns mental models.
Harvard Professor Michael D. Watkins sums up our vulnerability to such patterned thinking:
- We tend to harbour illusions that things are better than they really are
- We give great weight to evidence that supports our preconceptions
- We pay too little heed to what other people are doing
- We are creatures of the present
- Most of us don't feel compelled to prevent a problem that we have not personally experienced (1)
But if the conditions for success are changing then we must disrupt our existing thought patterns in order to see new possibility.
| 20th Century | 21st Century so far |
| Resource-based – buildings, machines, things | Knowledge-based – idea, networks |
| Strong boundaries for industry | Post industry boundary less world |
| Competitor focused | New competitive space focused |
| Nation state centric | Global |
| Efficiency paradigm | Optimisation paradigm |
| Measured time | Real time |
In his book Leading the Revolution, Gary Hamel says, "We need stand on a threshold of a new age- the age of revolution. In our minds we know that the new age has already arrived; in our bellies we are not sure we like it. For we know it is going to be an age of upheaval." (2)
We must be prepared to continuously rethink or reconceive:
- Our direction and outcomes
- How we compete and what value is developed
- The capability we need to build
- The mental models that we have
The instinctive approach
In this world of fast paced changes there are few external constants. At such times we will need to rely on our sense of instinct or internal certainty.
Malcolm Gladwell in his book Blink suggests that decisions made very quickly can be every bit as good as decisions made cautiously and deliberately. These snap judgements and first impressions can be educated and controlled. (3)
Our instinct is what psychologists describe as our adaptive unconscious. Others talk about it as our internal voice, first impressions or snap judgements.
This adaptive unconscious finds patterns in new or unfamiliar situations and behaviours based on narrow slices of experience. This is known as thin slicing.
You can sensitise yourself to this internal voice and improve the quality of your instinctive choices by:
- Be willing to make snap judgements and then consciously analysing them
- Understanding that thin slices can often contain deep held views at odds with your conscious values
- If your 'first impressions' seem 'wrong' then look to change the experiences that compose that impression
- Placing yourself in situations that require spontaneity – but ensure that your spontaneity has ground rules
- Understanding that in good decision making often less is more – this helps us see more easily the underlying patterns
- Focusing on body language especially micro expressions around the face
Notes
Max H. Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins, Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them, Harvard Business School Press, 2004.
Gary Hamel, Leading the Revolution: How to Thrive in Turbulent Times by Making Innovation a Way of Life, Harvard Business Press, 2002.
Malcolm Gladwell, Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking, Little, Brown, 2005.
Mark Fowler and Michael McAllum are Directors of Global Foresight Network Pty Ltd, a business consultancy which provides research, strategic advice, facilitation and training services to help organisations navigate the 21st Century.
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